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Tuesday, 19 May 2020

Sen. Ocasio-Cortez? AOC gets crushed in hypothetical matchups testing her viability as a Senate candidate

Ever since Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) defeated the odds to oust Joe Crowley, one of the Democratic Party's most established politicians, rumors have swirled that she may also primary one of New York's incumbent senators, Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand.

 
But according to a new poll, Ocasio-Cortez does not stand a chance at unseating either senator, both of whom are Democrats.
Despite ushering in a new, more progressive and further left vision for the Democratic Party, New York's Democrats are not hungry for Ocasio-Cortez's socialist vision.
The Zogby survey polling likely Democratic primary voters found that Ocasio-Cortez would lose a head-to-head matchup against Schumer, the Senate minority leader, by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 54% to 21%.
According to Zogby's hypothetical matchup, Schumer defeated Ocasio-Cortez in every region of New York and in all gender and ideological groups. Most importantly, Schumer also handily defeated Ocasio-Cortez among swing voters. However, Ocasio-Cortez bested Schumer in younger and single voters.
Ocasio-Cortez also suffered a significant defeat in a hypothetical matchup against Gillibrand, 43% to 26%.
However, Zogby said a primary matchup between Gillibrand and Ocasio-Cortez could be "much closer."
"The fact that Ocasio-Cortez is neck and neck with Gillibrand in NYC, and beating the former presidential candidate among younger voters, should be worrisome to the senator since many votes on a statewide level come from downstate, and Ocasio-Cortez has the name recognition to energize younger voters. Gillibrand should take note," according to Zogby.
The takeaway is that, although Ocasio-Cortez was crushed in both hypothetical matchups, she won the voters that could build her a large enough platform to mount a serious challenge against Democratic Party heavyweights.
From Zogby:
Although Senators Schumer and Gillibrand are winning against Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical Democratic primaries, the freshman congresswomen is performing well among younger voters and urban voters. If she were to energize both groups and benefit from a low turnout, she could shock the world again like she did when she ousted longtime Congressman Joseph Crowley in 2018. Also, women were the most uncertain of the surveyed groups, which could give "AOC" further leverage against heavyweights like Schumer and Gillibrand.

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