Thursday 4 July 2024

Betting Markets Show Kamala Running Neck-And-Neck With Biden For Nomination

 The fallout from the presidential debate between former President Trump and President Biden has catalyzed bettors to hedge their bets on whether Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic presidential nominee.

On Wednesday, the prediction market platform Polymarket showed bettors giving Biden a 49% chance of becoming the nominee compared to a 35% chance for Harris; last Thursday, before the debate, Biden was shown at 90% assured before he plummeted after his disastrous performance. Harris’ chance at becoming the nominee was at a miniscule 1% before the debate, according to Polymarket, Forbes reported.

Another prediction market platform, PredictIt, showed Biden with a 42-38 cent lead (a 4% gain, as cents are equivalent to percentages on the site) over Harris on Wednesday; at one point earlier in the week, the platform actually showed Harris clinging to a 1% lead.

Additionally, on Wednesday, PredictIt showed Trump with a 59-23 cent lead over Harris and a 59-20 cent lead over Biden.


On Tuesday, Texas Democrat Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first Democratic member of the House to call for Biden to step down.

“President Biden has continued to run substantially behind Democratic senators in key states and in most polls has trailed Donald Trump. I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not,” Doggett stated. “Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump’s many lies. … I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw.”

“While much of his work has been transformational, he pledged to be transitional,” Doggett continued. “He has the opportunity to encourage a new generation of leaders from whom a nominee can be chosen to unite our country through an open, democratic process. My decision to make these strong reservations public is not done lightly nor does it in any way diminish my respect for all that President Biden has achieved. … Recognizing that, unlike Trump, President Biden’s first commitment has always been to our country, not himself, I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw.”


In 1968, Democrat President Lyndon Johnson withdrew after various events in the primary season. He squeaked out a narrow victory in the New Hampshire primary, 48-42%, over anti-war candidate Senator Eugene McCarthy on March 12, then saw Senator Robert F. Kennedy announce his candidacy four days later. On March 31, Johnson announced he was not seeking his party’s nomination for president.

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